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Luxe Star Outlook

Marlins vs. Orioles prediction: Back this All-Star snub

Author

Ethan Hayes

Updated on March 07, 2026

Braxton Garrett deserved to be an All-Star.

The lefty boasts the second-highest strikeout minus walk rate among MLB starting pitchers since June 1, an outstanding 29.1 percent.

He has a 2.84 ERA across 44¹/₃ innings during that stretch, and the Fish won all eight of those games.

The improvements come from an increase in his sinker-slider mix alongside an added cutter.

He also found a better arm slot and set-up.

Marlins vs. Orioles pick

(7:05 p.m. ET)

Garrett will try to continue this hot streak against Baltimore.

The Birds have a reputation for crushing southpaws, but that hasn’t been the case lately, as the Orioles boast a mediocre .686 OPS against lefties since June 1.

Miami’s lineup is only slightly above-average, but that’ll work fine against Baltimore starting pitcher Kyle Gibson.

Gibson is a below-average pitcher who should finish the season with an ERA approaching 5.00.

Braxton Garrett
Braxton Garrett Getty Images

He is coming off the best start of the season, against the Twins (7 IP, 2 ER, 11 K), but he allowed 15 earned runs across the prior three starts (Yankees, Reds, Mariners). I

t’s a good time to sell high on Gibson.


Betting on Baseball?


I give the Marlins a starting pitching and lineup advantage on Friday.

I also give them the bullpen advantage, given the Fish lead the league in reliever expected FIP since June 1 (3.34).

Altogether, this is an excellent spot for the Marlins to earn another win.

Our pick

Marlins moneyline (+102, FanDuel)